As of September 1, wheat stocks in Ukraine amounted to 18.7 million tons, which is significantly less than the average annual figures of previous seasons, when this figure exceeded 20 million tons. This was reported by the analysts of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), created within the UAC.

“The exporters and the Ministry of Agrarian Policy signed a memorandum stating that Ukraine will not export more than 16 mln tons of wheat. If exports continue at the level of 2 million tons per month, we may have enough wheat until March-April next year. However, objectively speaking, the volume of wheat for export will be small, and usually the price rises due to a decrease in supply,” the analysts commented.

Experts note that in August, the market remained stable due to forward contracts. However, in September, the situation begins to change.

“Traders report that there are few offers for wheat. And if in August it was possible to keep the situation under control thanks to forward agreements, in September there are almost no such contracts. The market will operate mainly on the basis of spot transactions,” the FUAC mentioned.

Also, there are some factors on the global market that can affect the price of wheat. In particular, the market is waiting for the new USDA report and correction of data on wheat production in the EU.

The differences in estimates are significant, as the USDA's estimate of European wheat production at 128 mln tons is significantly higher than the European Commission's data, which estimates production at 116.2 mln tons. In addition, the situation in Argentina, where there are problems with soil moisture due to drought, may also negatively affect the global wheat balance.

“In the second half of September, the price of third-grade milling wheat may rise to 200-205 USD per ton on CPT, even if the world prices remain stable. In the current situation, domestic prices may also rise significantly,” the analysts predicted.