As of February 16, Ukraine’s wheat exports amount to approximately 190,000 tons. At the same time, additional demand is forming on the global market due to reduced supplies from the Black Sea region, supporting price dynamics.

This was reported by the analytical department of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), established within the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC).

“Due to logistical constraints in the Black Sea region, export volumes of one of Ukraine’s key competitors may decrease by nearly half. As a result, about 1–1.5 million tons of wheat will need to be sourced by global importers from alternative suppliers, who are already prepared to purchase from Ukraine, Romania, and France,” analysts noted.

Meanwhile, a certain imbalance between supply and demand is observed on the domestic market.

“Traders are actively contracting wheat, while supply from producers remains limited. This has been supporting gradual price growth for several weeks, with wheat gaining $1–2 per ton weekly. Additional influencing factors include weather risks and potential winter crop losses due to frost, which could further support prices,” experts believe.

Currently, indicative prices for feed wheat (11.5% protein) on a CPT-port basis range between $215–220 per ton. By early March, further strengthening to $220–225 per ton is expected.

“At least until mid-March, the wheat market will maintain its upward trend. Further price movement will depend on the condition of winter crops and developments in the global market environment,” FUAC concluded.