Wheat harvesting in Ukraine is progressing more slowly than in previous years. As of mid-July, about 1.2 million tons have been harvested, with an average yield of 2.8–2.9 tons per hectare. The current figures are mainly based on the southern regions, which have been affected by weather conditions.

This was reported by the analytical department of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative, established within the Ukrainian Agri Council.

“In central regions, stable yields of 4–6 tons/ha are recorded. The greatest losses are observed in the south, particularly in Dnipropetrovsk region, where yields are below average,” the analysts notes.

As the central and western regions join the harvest, the average yield is expected to increase to 3.3–3.5 t/ha. There are also risks associated with precipitation and the possible spread of fungal diseases in the western regions. This could lead to a decrease in protein content and a deterioration in grain quality.

At the same time, the wheat market is already showing signs of recovery.

“Last week, prices for food wheat rose by more than 1 USD/t, and for feed wheat by 4–5 USD/t. In the next two weeks, the cost of third-class wheat may reach 218–220 USD/t on a CPT-port basis. Wheat retains its potential for further growth. Prices are expected to rise in July–August, and seasonal highs traditionally occur in the first months of the year," according to the FUAC.

The experts add that despite rising prices, wheat is currently less profitable than rapeseed and barley. Because of this, some farmers are refraining from active sales, postponing the sale of grain to a later period in anticipation of further strengthening of the price situation.

Further market activity will largely depend on the pace of harvesting and weather conditions, especially in the western regions of the country.