In November, wheat exports from Ukraine amounted to only 1.706 million tons, which is considered a low rate. Seasonal factors continue to dominate, but the dynamics of wheat prices are somewhat different from usual.

This was reported by the analytical department of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), created within the Ukrainian Agri Council.

"The current phase of the season is traditionally characterized by a minimum of news, since all the key parameters of the harvest have long been known, and information about the state of the new harvest appears only after February. This means that there are few reasons for prices to change," the analysts noted.

The sowing season could have been a new driver of prices, but its impact was offset by favorable weather conditions.

“The condition of winter crops is assessed as good, there is sufficient moisture, and forecasts promise additional precipitation. Plants will enter winter in normal condition. No problems have been identified so far. That is why the risk factor of sowing, which could raise prices, no longer affects the market,” the analysts explained.

However, the price situation on the market currently looks unusually calm.

"Traditionally, in November-December, the price of wheat moves upward, as importers return to the market after summer purchases. But this season, the market has been stagnant for two months. In October, the conditional price was USD 220 per ton CPT port for grade 3, in November — USD 220–222 per ton, and December started in the same range. This season, the price of wheat is not behaving as usual," the analysts commented.

Importers' demand for Ukrainian wheat has begun to emerge, but activity is low.

"Last week, Egypt, Lebanon, and EU countries made purchases, but there is no rush. This is holding prices back. The market usually reacts to such a “pause” with a sharp movement in one direction or another, but the probability of growth is much higher. According to the seasonal model, the price potential is USD245–255 per ton CPT port during the peak activity period — from January to March," according to the FUAC.

In the short term, the market will remain stable.

“Notional prices per ton will remain at USD 220 for food wheat and USD 212-214 for feed wheat. The market will spend the coming weeks in ‘wait-and-see mode,” the analysts concluded.