Ukraine’s wheat market is beginning to pick up after a period of relative calm. Demand is gradually recovering, driven in part by increasing risks in the global market. External factors are currently the main drivers shaping future price dynamics.

This was reported by the analytical department of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), established within the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC).

“There was a lull in the wheat market last week, but demand started to recover after the holidays. Egypt has begun to show interest, and Algeria is also re-entering the market. Overall, there is growing interest in wheat on the global market,” FUAC analysts noted.

Against this backdrop, the domestic market remains relatively stable for now, but conditions for a gradual price increase are already forming. In particular, on a CPT basis (small ports), prices are currently in the range of USD 225–230 per ton, with expectations of rising to USD 228–234 per ton in the coming week, reflecting renewed demand and a cautious upward trend.

The main supporting factor for the market remains weather-related risks in exporting countries, primarily the United States and France, where the condition of winter wheat crops is deteriorating.

“In the United States, winter wheat is facing serious challenges: it entered the winter in a weak condition with low soil moisture reserves, and precipitation levels in key states remain very low. Only about 30% of the crop is rated good to excellent, compared to the long-term average of 45–50%. In France, the post-winter moisture deficit is estimated at around -50% of the norm,” the experts said.

According to them, the situation may worsen due to insufficient rainfall, which is already supporting an increase in futures prices. As a result, a combination of supportive factors is forming in the global market, while the current season remains atypical — the usual price increase between October and March did not materialize.

“For Ukraine, this creates the preconditions for a gradual price increase in the near term, driven by external market conditions and stronger import demand,” FUAC concluded.