December is traditionally considered a “short” month for business activity due to the holiday season, which adds challenges for wheat market participants.

This was reported by analysts of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), established within the UAC.

“As of December 9, the export of Ukrainian wheat reached 136,000 tons. However, there is a risk of “burning” of contracts for traders, as it is planned to fulfill contracts totaling 1.1 million tons by the end of December,” the FUAC said.

The demand for Ukrainian wheat remains high, especially in the Spanish market, where last week the deals for feed wheat supply were signed at the price of USD237-238 per ton for delivery in January.

At the same time, the main competition comes from Russian wheat, which dominates the markets of Algeria, Tunisia and the Middle East due to its aggressive pricing policy. But the situation may change in 2025.

“It is expected that from February to June 2025, Russia will be able to export only 11 million tons due to the introduction of an export quota. This is significantly less than in the previous season, when the quota was 28-29 million tons. An additional factor of influence is the unsatisfactory condition of 30% of crops in Russia.  We can expect a gradual increase in wheat prices in December-January, which may reach USD20-25 per ton,” the FUAC predicted.

On the domestic market of Ukraine, 2-3 grade wheat remains the main commodity for processors, while exporters are offered fodder grain.