Ukrainian wheat exports in February and January showed a downward trend, amounting to less than one million tons per month. However, the situation began to change after Russia introduced quotas on wheat exports, which encouraged importers to reorient to Ukrainian products.

This was reported by the analysts of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), established within the UAC.

"Many importers who traditionally bought Russian wheat have started to consider Ukrainian origin as an alternative. Among them are Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Romania and Bulgaria. This has already led to an increase in exports of Ukrainian wheat. According to preliminary data, 750,000 tons have already been contracted for March, and some traders predict that the volumes may reach one million tons," the analytical department of the FUAC mentioned.

Despite the growing demand for Ukrainian wheat, the situation with stocks in the domestic market remains tense. As of March 1, the stocks are estimated at 7.4 mln tons, which is significantly less than last season, when they exceeded 10 mln tons. This creates risks of limited supply on the market and may lead to price fluctuations.

"Competition between exporters can have a significant impact on pricing, especially given the decline in stocks. Some traders are already choosing a strategy of gradual reduction of sales, expecting more favorable conditions," the FUAC added.

At the same time, the domestic market of milling wheat in Ukraine demonstrates the increased demand from processors. Enterprises in Kyiv and Vinnytsia regions are willing to pay 10,800-11,000 UAH per ton for second-class wheat, which is almost in line with export prices.

"Processors are actively competing for the second grade of wheat, which makes domestic sales more profitable than exports. If farmers see favorable conditions on the domestic market, it makes sense to take advantage of it and sell their products locally," the experts said.

At present, the market continues to grow inertially, but analysts warn that this trend may change in the coming weeks. Historically, the second half of February, March and April are characterized by a decline in wheat prices.

"We are witnessing a certain sinking of the stock market, and this may have a negative impact on Ukrainian exports. In addition, the factors of the new harvest will also start to play a role, especially in the second half of April and May, when the first data on plantings and yield predictions in Europe, Russia, Ukraine and the United States will be released," the analysts said.

In particular, in Ukraine, there are regional moisture problems in Dnipropetrovs'k, Kharkiv, Zhytomyr and Vinnytsia regions, which may affect the quality and volume of the crop.

The coming weeks will be crucial for the further dynamics of wheat prices in Ukraine.