The Ukrainian soybean market has shown significant price growth during the current marketing season; however, in the short term, it may be influenced by developments in the global energy market. In particular, soybean price dynamics largely depend on oil quotations, which shape the biofuel sector and overall trends on agricultural exchanges.

This was reported by the analytical department of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), established within the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC).

Currently, export prices for Ukrainian soybeans significantly exceed the levels seen at the beginning of the season. While in September–November soybeans were traded at around $390–395/t, current port prices have reached $450–460/t for GMO soybeans and $475+/t for non-GMO soybeans. Thus, the increase since the beginning of the season already amounts to $60–70/t.

“If prices increase by another approximately $10–15 per ton, it will effectively mean nearly $100 growth over the season,” FUAC analysts note.

Despite attractive prices, the pace of Ukrainian soybean exports is gradually declining. According to the latest data, shipment volumes amount to around 48 thousand tons, which is significantly lower compared to the beginning of the marketing year. The decline in exports is driven by several factors simultaneously: a 10% export duty, reduced domestic stocks, and high prices for Ukrainian soybeans on global markets.

“Ukrainian soybeans continue to remain price leaders in key markets. For example, in the Turkish market, they cost nearly $500/t, while Brazilian soybeans are traded at $470–480/t,” experts explain.

At the same time, the domestic market remains supported by limited supply. According to analysts’ estimates, by approximately May, soybean stocks may fall below 1 million tons, which would effectively mean near depletion of old-crop supply.

“Approximately in May, soybean stocks may drop below 1 million tons. Processing plants will need to operate until the new harvest, so they may be ready to pay high prices. It cannot be ruled out that processors may raise soybean prices above UAH 21,000/t,” analysts believe.

At the same time, short-term market conditions will largely depend on the global energy market. In particular, soybean quotations traditionally correlate with oil prices, as soybean oil is actively used in biodiesel production.

Therefore, in March and the first half of April, short-term price fluctuations — and even declines — are possible. At the same time, in the medium term, the market will remain supported by limited soybean stocks and stable demand from domestic processors.