As of February 10, Ukraine exported 78,000 tons of soybeans, and the market remains stable. At the same time, the soybean stocks as of February 1 are estimated at 3.4 mln tons, which is significantly higher than the previous season (2.6-2.7 mln tons). This creates the need to intensify sales in February-April, as in May-June traders will focus on the new harvest of grains and rapeseed.

This issue was reported by the analysts of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC) created within the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC).

“We have enough soybeans, and it is too early to worry. However, demand may decrease in the spring, which will affect prices. Therefore, it is important to take this factor into account and plan sales accordingly,” the FUAC said.

The situation on the global market also affects Ukrainian exports. In Brazil, harvesting is delayed due to high soybean moisture, which leads to significant losses in the fields. This could change global balances and support prices.

In addition, the market is awaiting an updated USDA report, which may adjust production forecasts in South America.

“If the crop losses in Brazil and Argentina are confirmed, this could be an additional factor in price growth. Already, the seasonal model shows that in late February - early March, we may see the level of 400-405 USD per ton on a CPT basis, and potentially even 410-415 USD per ton,” the FUAC analysts mentioned.

On the domestic market of Ukraine, soybean prices are currently stable:

•  388-393 USD per ton in ports;
•  17 500-17 700 UAH per ton at processors.

The main restraining factor is the weak soybean meal market, which is why processors cannot actively compete with exporters.

“In the coming months, some traders may try to expand the margins, especially in May-June, when the main focus will shift to the new harvest. We have already seen similar situations in the market, so it is important to be prepared for possible price fluctuations,” the analysts concluded.