Ukrainian farmers were betting heavily on rapeseed as a highly profitable crop in 2023. Meanwhile, a number of external factors, such as lower oil and biodiesel prices, threaten to cause the oilseed to collapse. The situation is aggravated by the restriction of Ukrainian exports of five crops to the EU, including rapeseed.

This was discussed on May 30 during a weekly briefing organized by the analytical center of the PUSK cooperative, created within the framework of the UAC.

"Biodiesel prices have been declining for six months. Interest rates are now expected to rise in the US, which puts pressure on the oil and other energy markets, including biodiesel, and will help to reduce rapeseed prices. In addition, the EU expects a good oilseed harvest, which will reduce European demand for Ukrainian rapeseed at the start of the harvesting campaign. Ukraine is also expected to produce 3.7 million tons of the oilseed," the analytical department of PUSK said.

According to analysts, the new rapeseed harvest is currently contracted on German forwards at 385-390 euros per ton. Based on the high expected supply of rapeseed in July, the price may decrease by 40-50 euros per ton.

"The situation is aggravated by the expectation that the EU will extend the ban on imports of five crops from Ukraine, including rapeseed, until the end of the year. In this case, Poland will lose its role as a buyer of Ukrainian rapeseed. Odesa ports are likely to be unable to ship rapeseed in July, and the entire supply will go to small ports. Therefore, we can expect the prices to fall in July-August," PUSK adds.

The demand for Ukrainian rapeseed may be recovered in the fall, when the EU will have processed its own harvest.