After an active spring export season, the Ukrainian corn market has entered a period of seasonal lull. In May, Ukraine exported 2.3 million tonnes of the grain, and around 2 million tonnes have already been contracted for June. According to forecasts, shipments for the month could reach 2.1–2.2 million tonnes.

This is reported by the analytical department of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), established within the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC).

Amid sufficient supply and restrained demand from importers, purchase prices on the domestic market have declined somewhat. Whereas the market was previously oriented toward a level of $225–227 per tonne, individual deals are now being concluded in the range of $220–222 per tonne.

"Right now the market is in a transitional period between the end of the active US export season and the entry of Brazil's new harvest onto the world market. At such moments, a certain price stabilization and a decline in trading activity are usually observed. At the same time, no significant changes have occurred on the FOB and CIF export bases, which indicates a generally balanced situation on the world market. The current price correction in Ukraine therefore looks logical for the off-season period. In the coming weeks, the market will likely remain relatively stable," the analysts note.

Despite the temporary lull, the fundamentals remain favorable for further price strengthening. According to the latest USDA forecast, in the 2025/26 season world corn production will amount to 1.295 billion tonnes, while consumption is estimated at 1.306 billion tonnes. Thus, global demand continues to exceed supply.

"Importers have now largely covered their current needs, so purchasing activity has eased somewhat. However, as early as late June, demand from Europe, Turkey, and Egypt may revive, since there is still some time before Brazilian corn comes to market en masse. This could support the market and contribute to a gradual recovery in prices. By the end of June, a return to nominal price levels of around $227–228 per tonne can be expected, and in July — above $230 per tonne. Overall, positive market conditions for corn persist into the second half of the summer," the FUAC predicts.

The analysts add that with the start of the new marketing season, market participants' attention will shift to wheat, barley, and rapeseed. Therefore, the dynamics of domestic corn prices will depend not only on global trends but also on the trading activity for the new harvest of other crops.