Amid high corn prices, Ukrainian farmers have already exported about 1.8-1.9 million tons and are still maintaining good shipments. However, the situation on the global market may change soon.

This was reported by analysts of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), established within the UAC.

“Today, Ukrainian corn looks quite expensive against the global background. For example, we offer corn to the Spanish market at 257-260 USD per ton, while Argentine products are 10-15 USD cheaper – at the level of 245-248 USD. As a result, the key consumers in the EU are not showing active demand. In addition, new shipments of Argentine grain are expected in April, which will put even more pressure on prices,” the FUAC analysts said.

At the same time, in Brazil, according to the satellite monitoring, the soil moisture level is decreasing in the so-called “small” states, which account for almost 45% of corn production. In case of further deterioration of weather conditions, this may affect yields and become a trigger for a new price increase.

“The climate in Brazil has a distinct seasonality: first, it rains heavily, then there is a long heat wave without precipitation. If the moisture reserves are not accumulated sufficiently, corn will not form the necessary vegetative mass. As of the end of March, there is a downward trend in soil moisture, and the risk zone is gradually expanding. If this continues, we may see a new round of price growth in May,” the FUAC predicted.

Meanwhile, positive news comes only from Turkey, which has reduced the duty on corn imports and opened a quota. It is the demand from this direction that is currently supporting the prices of Ukrainian corn. However, according to experts, the quota may be enough for a week, provided active trade is maintained.

“The current price of corn on CPT-port basis is over 230 USD per ton, which is actually the price for Turkey. As soon as Turkey exhausts the quota, the market may drop to 215-220 USD in April, which is in line with seasonal patterns. Against this background, farmers should carefully weigh the decision to sell,” added the FUAC analysts.

Thus, the situation on the corn market remains ambiguous: in the short term, prices may fall, but in the medium term, under the negative scenario in Brazil, growth in May-June is possible. Ukrainian producers should closely monitor weather conditions in South America and be prepared for both scenarios.