The global corn market is currently operating steadily, but in practice has only two active sellers — Ukraine and the United States. The United States is mainly active in the forward segment with deliveries scheduled for April–May, while Ukraine remains the key supplier of spot corn with deliveries in February–March. This is driving increased importer interest in Ukrainian grain in the short term.

This was reported by the analytical department of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), established within the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC).

The main external factor influencing corn prices remains the situation in South America.

“In Brazil, corn planting has been delayed due to drought in southern regions and expectations of rainfall. In Argentina, the situation is also tense, with southern regions suffering from heat and uneven precipitation. There is a high probability that Argentina will not be able to actively enter the export market in March, which will provide additional support to prices,” analysts noted.

Against this background, Ukraine is demonstrating strong export activity.

“In the first days of February alone, about 700,000 tons of corn have already been shipped, and total exports in February may reach 2.6–2.7 million tons, with potential up to 3 million tons. From January to March, Ukraine traditionally maximizes the use of its export channels, and this year additional demand is coming from importers who had expected cheaper Argentine corn. On the spot market, Ukraine is effectively the only active seller, which supports price growth,” FUAC analysts explained.

Price dynamics on the domestic market already reflect these factors.

“Corn in ports is currently traded at approximately $214–216 per ton, or about UAH 10,350–10,500 per ton in local currency. This week, the market may stabilize in the range of UAH 10,500–10,550 per ton, and in the medium term there is potential for gradual growth of $1–2 per ton per week. Some volatility may occur following the release of the USDA report, but this is expected to be short-term and will not change the overall trend,” analysts believe.

The outlook for late February and March remains positive.

“If weather conditions in Argentina do not improve, Ukrainian corn prices may rise to $220 per ton or higher, and seasonal models allow for levels of $230–235 per ton CPT in February–April,” FUAC concluded.