As of August 11, Ukraine had exported 113,000 tons of barley, and the pace of shipments has accelerated. China remains the main destination, accounting for up to 95% of the supply structure, which determines price dynamics and market participant behavior.

This statement is reported by the analysts of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC) created within the Ukrainian Agri Council.

"People have started buying barley more actively, and we are seeing prices rise. Chinese quality is already trading at USD216–218 per ton. Regular barley is bought at USD210–212, but mostly small batches — 300–500 tons. For lots of a thousand tons or more, you can get an additional premium. Deliveries to China must be completed by August 15–20, and there are not enough offers yet, so the market has the potential to reach USD220 per ton for the corresponding quality," according to the FUAC.

At the same time, activity on the barley market may decline after the contracts with China are fulfilled.

"After shipments to China are completed, a vacuum may arise in the market, as there are almost no new contracts. The premium for Chinese quality will disappear, and at current prices, barley is not competitive for other destinations — Israel, Cyprus, or the EU. The second half of August and part of September may be marked by a correction: the seasonal model shows a possible decline to USD205–209 per tonne," the analysts believe.

Another factor influencing the market is the low level of barley stocks in Ukraine at the beginning of the season. This could lead to an early depletion of supply and also affect prices.

“This year's stocks are 2 million tons lower than last year's, so barley will run out faster. Accordingly, competition between exporters and processors may keep prices high. Those who do not manage to sell now may consider selling in January–February, when demand will pick up again,” the experts add.