In Ukraine, against the background of reduced acreage and the impact of weather risks, a significant reduction in the gross barley harvest in the new season is expected.

This statement was reported by the analytical department of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), created within the UAC.

"This year, we expect barley harvest of about 5.1-5.3 mln tons, which is 40% lower than the pre-war level. This means a significant decrease in supply at the start of the season, and the market is gradually starting to take this into account in prices," the analysts said.

Demand for Ukrainian barley is growing, especially from China, which is returning to the market, and Southern European countries. This creates preconditions for stabilization and even growth of export activity.

"China has already contracted about 500,000 tons of Ukrainian barley for July-August, and European importers, including Spain and Italy, are also stepping up purchases. Traders are trying to cover the needs in volumes in advance, given the limited prospects for domestic production," the FUAC mentioned.

Analysts also see the potential for price growth in the second half of the year, especially if weather risks are confirmed and the harvest is even smaller than prediction is.

"At the beginning of the season, the price model shows the level of 200-205 USD/t on CPT basis, but by December-January we can expect the level of 230-240 USD/t. The market is already showing willingness to pay more for the limited supply of quality barley," the analysts predicts.