Rising prices for mineral fertilizers are creating serious risks for the spring sowing campaign and future harvests in Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC), the current price situation already raises doubts about farmers’ ability to supply their fields with the necessary inputs.

“As of today, ammonium nitrate and urea cost around UAH 40,000 per tonne, which is extremely expensive. Prices are also rising globally, and while they are about $750–760 on international markets, in Ukraine they are even higher due to logistics and import duties. This shapes domestic pricing. Producers are already considering whether they will be able to apply fertilizers in full, and unfortunately, the answer is очевидна — they will not be able to fully meet their needs,” said UAC Deputy Chairman Denys Marchuk.

The key issue is the lack of economic feasibility in investing significant funds in fertilizers amid uncertainty over future prices for agricultural products.

“Today, there is no financial viability in this area, as all resources are being spent on the sowing campaign, while prices for grains and oilseeds in summer remain uncertain. There is a risk they will be significantly lower than the costs already incurred by farmers. In these conditions, UAC proposes specific solutions to stabilize the situation. We understand that some support instruments are already delayed, but there are steps that can still be implemented now. They will allow farmers to prepare for the winter sowing campaign and accumulate the necessary volumes of fertilizers,” Marchuk emphasized.

Among the proposed solutions are changes in logistics, restarting production, and adjusting customs policy.

“First, allowing maritime transportation of calcium ammonium nitrate, which is non-explosive but currently banned together with hazardous substances. We have already submitted relevant expert conclusions to the Ministry of Economy, Odesa Regional Military Administration, and the Navy of Ukraine. Second, restarting the Odesa Port Plant to produce fertilizers using available gas that has not been utilized. Third, reducing import duties to increase market supply. Without these decisions, the issue of fertilizer application by farmers remains unresolved,” he explained.

UAC stresses that under-application of fertilizers may have large-scale consequences for the country’s economy.

“If we talk about the winter sowing campaign, the situation may become critical, and we risk losing more than 20% of the future harvest. In monetary terms, this means over $4–5 billion in export revenues. These are resources that support the economy and the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Not using fertilizers is not an option either, as we will not be able to produce the necessary volumes. Ukraine remains an export-oriented agricultural country, and this affects not only business but also the country’s economic resilience,” the UAC Deputy Chairman concluded.