The spring sowing campaign may be complicated by delays in granting permission to import calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN). According to estimates by the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC), this could result in losses of up to 20% of the 2026 harvest. The risks were outlined by Denys Marchuk, Deputy Chairman of the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC).

According to him, after the start of the full-scale war, restrictions were introduced on the import of products that could potentially contain explosive substances. In July 2025, the list of such goods was expanded to include certain types of nitrogen and compound fertilizers. As a result, farmers are entering the active phase of preparations for spring crops amid a potential fertilizer shortage.

“We understand the properties of ammonium nitrate — it can indeed pose risks, and the decision to restrict it was understandable. However, calcium ammonium nitrate is non-explosive and poses no threat, which is confirmed by expert conclusions. Despite this, the issue of its import has remained unresolved for a long time. In practice, we are facing a situation where a safe product cannot enter the market at a critical moment ahead of the spring sowing campaign,” Denys Marchuk stated.

He added that domestic fertilizer production has significantly declined since the start of the full-scale war. While annual ammonium nitrate production previously reached about 2 million tons, it now stands at just over 1 million tons.

“The UAC estimates that if current restrictions remain in place and timely imports are not allowed, the shortage of calcium ammonium nitrate could reach up to 200,000 tons. These are substantial volumes given Ukraine’s cultivated areas. Ammonium nitrate cannot be fully replaced, but farmers who are able to apply at least calcium ammonium nitrate will significantly improve the prospects of their future harvest.”

Spring crops are particularly at risk — including spring wheat, corn, and sunflower, which form the backbone of Ukraine’s agricultural exports. Preliminary estimates suggest that crop losses could reach up to 20%, which in monetary terms would translate into tens of billions of hryvnias in lost revenue.

“Delayed foreign currency earnings would destabilize the exchange rate market and increase inflationary risks. Agricultural products account for 56–60% of Ukraine’s exports, and the country’s economic capacity depends on this. Therefore, the issue of importing safe fertilizers is not only a concern for farmers but for the entire national economy.”

The UAC, together with its partners, has already appealed to the Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture of Ukraine to resolve the situation. According to Denys Marchuk, agricultural associations have submitted a full package of documents, including expert conclusions confirming the product’s safety, and have proposed a mechanism for importing calcium ammonium nitrate through both small and large ports, subject to mandatory safety certification.