Ukraine has threshed 3.5 million hectares and harvested over 14.7 million tons of wheat. The harvest is almost over. Contracts for the purchase of Ukrainian wheat have already been signed not only for August but also for September. Prices are showing an upward trend.

This issue was discussed on July 30 during the analytical briefing of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), created within the UAC.

“On CPT wheat markets, there is an increase in prices by USD5-6 per ton, while on CIF markets - only by USD 1. Usually, prices on CIF markets are the first to rise, so this situation indicates that traders have problems with contract coverage. Because of this, traders encourage farmers with higher prices,” analysts said.

The FUAC are predicting that such a localized distortion may last for about two weeks. In the seaports of Odesa, the conditional prices for wheat will fluctuate in the range of 175-189 USD/t on CPT basis, and 205-215 USD/t on CIF Constanta terms next week. For those who do not plan to sell wheat in the coming weeks, analysts advise not to pay attention to the current fluctuations, as July is an unstable month for the grain market.

In the long run, wheat prices will rise. A significant factor that will support the upward movement of prices is the global decline in grain production.

“European grain markets are showing instability. The EU is expected to reduce wheat production by 10 million tons, Russia - by 10 million tons, and Ukraine - by 3-4 million tons. Only the US is predicting 4 million ton increase in production, which will not cover the decline in the EU and Russia. Therefore, world prices are likely to rise amid declining production,” the FUAC added.