Ukraine, as well as the farmer’s community, is extremely concerned about numerous reports from the authoritative Western media about the possibility of an imminent attack by the Russian Federation.

At the same time, the all nervousness thoughts harm our country.

Falling prices of Ukrainian equities, suspension of flights and investments, the threat of termination of sea transportation - all this has a very negative impact on the national economy, which is already shocked by the sharp rise in gas prices.

In this situation, as never before, it is necessary to maintain sobriety and cold calculation.

Let the military experts think about the possibility of a full-scale attack.

However, it should be noted that the statements of both Ukrainian military and civilian experts, as well as foreign ones, that accumulation of an army by Russia near the Ukrainian borders are not enough for panic.

And this looks very strange, because if they really want to convince us that the Kreml is about to attack, then this is what Ukrainian and foreign intelligence should talk about, at least to our government and, at most, the media.

But judging by the statements of the President of Ukraine, not to mention public information, this is not happening.

A strong economy has always been one of the key success factors in war, and in a hybrid one - can be crucial, as an acute economic crisis can lead to social protests, political crisis and the collapse of the power vertical.

This creates a perfect situation for external aggression, as it undermines the state's ability to organize resistance.

According to the consulting agency A95 (there is no data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine yet), in 2021 Ukraine imported from Belarus and Russia 62% of all diesel fuel consumed in the country.

Another 15% came from the sea, almost 9% - from Lithuania and only 13% or 1.05 million tons Ukraine produced independently.

The total volume of the Ukrainian market of diesel fuel amounted to 7.9 million tons, and gasoline 2.39 million tons, although 1 million tons were also imported from Belarus.

At the same time, in 2020, farmers consumed 1.3 million tons of diesel fuel, which is more than all Ukrainian production.

Thus, blocking the supply of diesel fuel from Russia and Belarus, as well as their imports by sea, threatens to stop traffic, disrupt sowing or harvesting.

And also - hunger in big cities, because their food supply and production of the latter is impossible without a rhythmically functioning transportation system.

This leads to a decline in the army's effectiveness, because if the government fails to quickly find new sources of fuel, it will have to use stockpiles of military depots to avoid starvation.

We should not forget that our gas transmission system, for example, on the border with Russia, may "accidentally" be a full-scale accident that will stop the transit of gas indefinitely. It will also hit both the economy and the social sector.

It is no secret that the key items of Ukrainian exports are the export of metallurgical and agricultural sector’s products, which is carried out mainly by sea.

Data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine for 2021 have not yet been published, but in 2020 they together gave 45.1% and 18.4% of the country's foreign exchange earnings, which amounted to about USD50 billion. revenue.

Based on the first three quarters of 2021 data from, agriculture and metallurgy will account for about 17-18% of total GDP.

Accordingly, the cessation of shipments by sea will not only lead to a radical reduction in foreign exchange earnings, but also a crisis in key sectors of the national economy that generate taxes and demand for other industries, leading to a domino effect.

Sanctions against Russia for elements of a hybrid war will be milder than for an open invasion, and their consequences will radically make it easier for the Kreml to achieve its goals and reduce the amount of expected losses.

Accordingly, the fact that none of the above is happening indicates that an attack should not be expected in the near future.

In addition to Ukraine's economy, there is also Russia's economy, which is "removing the cream" from high gas and oil prices now.

For example, only Gazprom's EBITDA in 2021 doubled compared to 2020. Accordingly, the Kreml doesn’t want to end this "holiday".

Russia also needs time to realize the potential of new agreements with China and reduce its vulnerability to possible sanctions.

For example, the construction of the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline is scheduled to begin only in 2024.

This gas pipeline will allow Russia to either increase total gas exports or transfer 50 billion m3 of natural gas to China, which is currently exported to Europe.

At the same time, 40 billion m3 are exported through the Gas Transmission System (GTS) of Ukraine, and Europe consumes 350-400 billion m3 of natural gas, about 50% of which is in Russia.

To sum up, Putin and his entourage have no reason to rush and solve the "Ukrainian issue" by 2024 or 2025.

But there are more than enough reasons to wait, continuing the previous course, as well as fomenting panic in Ukraine and abroad.

As we see, panic cause economic damage to Ukraine nowadays. Some foreigners sell businesses, someone send children abroad in the middle of the school year, someone exchange hryvnias for dollars, someone run away on their own or transfer investments to other countries.

The gas crisis also hurt economy, as our competitors in the EU have the opportunity to buy natural gas under long-term contracts, where the price is several times lower than the spot price at which we buy gas.

For example, the UAC’s analysis of the cost of major cereals production shows that due to rising prices for mineral fertilizers (in the cost of which natural gas is 70-80%) and gas for drying production of 1 ton of grain in Ukraine will cost $ 60-90 more than in Russia.

Accordingly, if gas prices remain high, and the trend of declining grain prices continues, this year we may come to a situation when Ukrainian farmers will suffer losses, and its Russian competitor will continue to earn by increasing exports through the Black Sea basin and capturing the markets to which we export.

We will be able to meet all these challenges, and thus win the hybrid war, only by solving the relevant economic problems.

For example, we will increase gas production and reduce its cost to the level of European long-term contracts not only for the population and housing and communal services, but also for the entire economy.

Let's revive Ukrainian oil production. All this can be done if we finally solve our problems with corruption, burdensome tax administration, pressure on business from the security forces and unjust court decisions.

All of this means that society needs to focus on our internal problems, not on discussing when Putin will attack.

Co-author: the UAC Deputy Chairman Mykhailo Sokolov

Column for the publication "Economic Truth"