The recent strengthening of the blockade by the aggressor country on the inspection of ships in the "grain corridor" has an extremely negative impact on the Ukrainian wheat market. The ship movement in the Black Sea should be possible again, otherwise the grain supply will shift to small ports, significantly reducing the pace of Ukrainian exports and causing a collapse in prices. At the same time, European bans on the import of Ukrainian grain are not a significant factor in the market's influence.

On April 18, this was discussed at a weekly briefing hosted by the "PUSK", analytical center created within the framework of the UAC.

"The main export of Ukrainian wheat is carried out through sea ports as part of the 'grain initiative.' But on April 17, the Russian side blocked inspections of the ships in the 'grain corridor' in Turkish waters for the second time. Therefore, export rates will decline. Currently, the indicative prices for wheat based on CPT Odessa are 194-197 $/t, but the figures are likely to fall to 190 $/t this week. Further prices will depend on the possibility of exporting through the 'grain corridor.' Most traders conclude contracts with a maximum delivery term of May 10-12, not risking contracting due to the uncertainty of the situation with the 'grain deal.' If the situation in the Bosporus does not improve, then the supply of wheat will move to small ports with a corresponding decrease in prices," the analytical department of the "PUSK" said.

Bans on the import of Ukrainian grain from Poland, Romania, Hungary, and Slovakia are not as critical as the reinforcement of the blockade in the Black Sea.

 “It is unnecessary to panic about European Union restrictions on the import of Ukrainian grain. If we look at the structure of exports, Ukraine supplies over 60% of wheat by sea. Through Romania, there is practically a re-export of Ukrainian products. The share of Ukrainian wheat exports to Poland, Bulgaria, and Slovakia is not significant for the market. Ukraine is interested in transit through Europe. Of course, it is convenient for farmers in western regions to sell to EU countries. But for the rest of the farmers, transit to the east is more important," the "PUSK" analytical department said.