The Ukrainian sunflower market in the current season may deviate from its traditional seasonal pattern. The situation is being shaped by external factors, primarily imbalances in the vegetable oil market, which serve as a benchmark for pricing in the raw materials segment.

This was reported by the analytical department of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), established within the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC).

“Fundamentally, the market is supported by reduced production in key regions. Sunflower harvests in Ukraine, the EU, and Russia were weaker than expected, limiting supply and creating preconditions for further price strengthening. Against this backdrop, the domestic market is already showing strong price positions: indicative purchase prices for sunflower have exceeded UAH 30,000 per ton, which is a high level for this period of the season,” the analysts noted.

A key benchmark for the market is the situation in the vegetable oils segment.

“Sunflower prices are directly dependent on developments in the vegetable oil market. At present, an atypical imbalance has emerged, where sunflower oil has temporarily lost its premium over soybean oil. Such situations usually do not last long, and the market tends to rebalance,” FUAC explained.

If high soybean oil prices persist, this will create conditions for further increases in sunflower oil and, consequently, sunflower prices.

“If soybean oil remains at elevated levels, sunflower oil will follow, which will automatically support sunflower prices. The upside potential for oil is estimated at at least USD 150–200 per ton, which could also translate into higher sunflower prices. At the same time, this process will not be immediate and may take several months,” the analysts forecast.

At the same time, market behavior in the coming months may differ from the usual seasonal pattern. Traditionally, sunflower prices decline between April and June; however, under current conditions, this scenario is not guaranteed.

“This season, the sunflower market may behave atypically. In the short term, some downward correction is possible, particularly as processing plants are already covered with raw materials at around 60–70% and may temporarily put pressure on prices. At the same time, in the medium term, the market has growth potential,” FUAC concluded.