Most of the old crop has already been sold on the Ukrainian soybean market, with only a few batches remaining. However, unfavorable weather conditions and delays in crop development may significantly postpone the start of the harvesting campaign.

This is stated by the analysts of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC) created within the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC).

"As for the new harvest, prices remain at USD$390–395/t for GMO soybeans and USD420–425/t for non-GMO soybeans. At the same time, there are a number of risks: some of the soybeans were planted late, and weather conditions — in particular frosts — caused stress to the plants. Many regions are experiencing delays in vegetation growth. The risks are further compounded by excessive rainfall, which has led to flooding of some fields, especially in the central and western regions. The new soybean crop is expected to hit the market in September, but there is a high probability that this will not happen on time. Weather factors may delay the start of the harvest campaign until at least mid-September," according to the FUAC.

Given the limited stocks of old soybeans, uncertainty about the start of the new harvest, and the projected decline in gross harvest, the market is approaching a critical point of supply and demand balance. This creates conditions for oilseed prices to rise.

“The soybean market prediction is further complicated by imperfect statistics — not all individual farms are included in official reports, which distorts estimates of oilseed acreage and yields,” the analysts added.