Ukrainian rapeseed will be much more expensive in the new season. This will be facilitated by local May frosts and the growth of stock prices. Also, the competition for rapeseed between exporters and processors will increase.

This isssue was discussed during the analytical briefing of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), established within the UAC.

“Yesterday, there was a sharp increase in rapeseed prices on the stock exchange: from 475 EUR per ton, the price rose to 485. If the growth continues, prices could reach 500 EUR per ton in the next two weeks. Even if the stock exchange shows a drop in quotations by the end of the week, in the long run, the price tags for Ukrainian rapeseed will exceed 500 EUR per ton. This growth will be facilitated by local problems with May frosts. There is no official information yet. However, according to the producers, in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad regions, the damage to rapeseed crops in some farms is up to 30-40%,” the FUAC reported.

According to analysts, the predicted gross harvest of rapeseed at 4-5 mln tonnes in Ukraine will not be reached. While last year the harvest was 4.7 mln tonnes, this year's harvest will not exceed 4.1 mln tonnes. As we have already mentioned, the decline in production will push prices up.

In the new season, competition between exporters and processors will be intensified.

“Ukraine plans to process about 500-550 thsd tonnes of rapeseed. Therefore, we can expect that there will be a “fight” for the oilseed between exporters and processors. While in the past Ukraine used to export rapeseed quickly in 2-3 months, this year the season was long and lasted until February-March. Therefore, we cannot expect a large supply of the oilseed from farmers in July-August, because only those who need “quick money” will sell rapeseed during the harvest,” the FUAC added.

At present, the conditional prices for rapeseed are 420-425 EUR per ton on CPT Odesa. Analysts of the FUAC noted that there was a high demand for the new rapeseed crop: both traders and processors are actively contracting the oilseed. Contracts for delivery to Germany are concluded at prices of 460-465 euros per ton on a DAP basis.