Despite good harvest prospects, the Ukrainian corn market faces a number of challenges, including delays in the harvesting campaign, grain quality issues due to moisture, and weak export activity.

This was reported by the analytical department of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), created within the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC).

"Corn is less susceptible to wet weather than other crops, but there is one problem — mycotoxins. They appear when grain is in contact with moisture for a long time. This already happened in 2022, when part of the harvest lost its export quality. Europeans check these batches very carefully, and corn with elevated levels of mycotoxins may simply not be exported," the experts note.

The first cases of elevated mycotoxin levels are already being recorded in the northern regions of the country.

“This is especially true for Chernihiv and Sumy regions. The current weather only contributes to the development of this problem. If the situation does not change, we may face systemic problems with corn quality,” according to the FUAC.

Another factor slowing down the market is the lag in harvesting and delays in delivery to ports.

"Corn exports are currently very weak — only 289,000 tons as of October 20, while at least one million tons are needed. Due to precipitation, equipment is idle, and corn has high moisture content — up to 20% in the central regions and up to 35% in the north. Such grain needs to be dried, and this takes time," the analysts explain.

At the same time, due to limited supply, spot prices on the domestic market may rise.

“Supply is unlikely to increase in the coming weeks, so the spot market has every chance of growing. Prices are currently in the range of UAH 9,700-9,850 per ton,” the FUAC added.

Experts expect the situation to remain tense in the coming weeks: weather conditions are not conducive to rapid harvesting, and risks related to grain quality may limit the export potential of Ukrainian corn.