Exports of Ukrainian corn hardly grew in September, and the main activity on the market is expected in October–December.

This was reported by the analytical department of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC) created within the Ukrainian Agri Council.

"The low activity in September is explained by several factors. First, harvesting began only in the south, where corn is traditionally scarce. The main areas are located in the center and north of the country, and mass harvesting there will start around October 10-15. Second, even “dry” corn in the north and center has a moisture content of 16-18%, which requires further processing before shipment to ports. This means that the grain will not be able to physically reach the terminals until the second half of October," the analysts explain.

The first batches harvested in the south cannot significantly influence the market, so supply remains limited. Meanwhile, traders have already contracted significant volumes for export but have not yet managed to purchase grain from producers. This creates conditions for price growth.

"The Ukrainian market is already seeing an increase in prices. As of the end of September, conditional prices are holding in the range of USD200–207/t on a CPT port basis. For fast delivery in October–November, you can get up to USD209/t. If harvesting rates are low and supply is limited, prices could rise to USD210–212/t in the coming weeks and even to USD230/t by the end of October," according to the FUAC predictions.

The situation may change in November–December. The US is preparing for a record corn harvest, which will increase global supply and affect world prices. The main destinations for Ukrainian grain exports will remain the EU, Turkey, and Egypt, but competition in these markets will increase.

“October may be a month of profitable spot deals, while the end of the year is likely to bring a price correction under the influence of global supply,” the analysts conclude.