Ukraine’s rapeseed market is entering the spring period with uncertainty regarding crop conditions and potential production volumes. Reduced acreage, weather risks, and the likelihood of reseeding may significantly impact the supply balance already at the beginning of the new marketing year.

This was reported by the analytical department of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), established within the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC).

“According to preliminary estimates, the area sown with rapeseed for the new season in Ukraine amounts to approximately 1.05–1.1 million hectares. In some regions, acreage has decreased this year due to changes in farms’ economic priorities. Winter survival results will also have an impact. It cannot be ruled out that 100,000–300,000 hectares may need to be reseeded. For this crop, this is a significant figure, and the actual harvested area could fall below 1 million hectares. More accurate estimates will be available after monitoring crop conditions in March,” analysts noted.

Indicative prices for the new rapeseed crop (July–August delivery) are currently at $530–535 per ton. In western regions, some forward contracts have already been recorded at $540–543 per ton for volumes of 2,000–3,000 tons. For comparison, rapeseed quotations on the European exchange Euronext have recently been holding within €485–495 per ton, without forming a clear trend.

At the same time, analysts caution against excessive activity in the forward market:

“It is advisable to wait for a clearer understanding of the production balance. If the gross harvest turns out to be lower than expected, the market could respond with a sharper price increase.”

The situation in the EU should also be taken into account, as planted areas there are not showing significant expansion either.

“European processors traditionally rely on imports of Ukrainian raw materials. If Ukraine’s harvest declines, this may intensify competition for supply and increase market volatility in the second half of the year,” FUAC concluded.