In March, Ukraine exported 1.1 million tons of wheat, one of the highest monthly figures of the current season. In April, the volume of supplies may be slightly lower, but will still remain high.

This was reported by the analytical department of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), created within the UAC.

“As of April, 850,000 tons of wheat have already been contracted. The export volume may reach 1 mln tons. Despite the overall stagnation of demand in the European market, Ukrainian grain finds its buyers, particularly in Egypt,” the FUAC said.

However, the situation is less optimistic from the price point of view. The main export destinations - Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands - remain passive in terms of new purchases, and the reintroduction of duties on Ukrainian grain to the EU in June may further complicate market access.

“There is no positive news for the wheat price so far. The stock market has been reduced in recent weeks, and we see a serious gap between the physical market and stock exchange quotes. While the FOB price in Ukraine is currently 60 USD per ton higher than in Chicago, by June-July the markets usually synchronize. This means that the Ukrainian physical price may sink, especially with the new harvest approaching,” the UAC commented.

According to analysts, the conditional average price for the new second-class harvest in July has prediction at 190-200 USD per ton on a CPT-port basis, while currently the figure is fixed at USD210-215. The potential decrease could be up to 20 USD per ton.

“If you have the opportunity, you should not rush to sell. Historically, in July-August, the market is saturated with wheat from all major exporting countries - Ukraine, Russia, Romania, and the US - and even with a deficit balance, the price usually falls. At the same time, the seasonal model shows that from October to December, the price may rise to 220-235 USD per ton on a CPT-port basis. Therefore, if the financial cushion allows, it is worth considering postponing sales,” the analysts added.

On the domestic market, flour mills are currently offering the best prices – 10,500 -11,000 UAH/t of second- and third-class wheat. Given the weak export demand, this may be a more profitable solution for farmers.