The domestic Ukrainian wheat market is starting to feel the shortage that usually happens in October and November.

This is according to the analytics department of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), which was set up as part of the Ukrainian Agri Council.

"As of October 6, wheat exports from Ukraine amounted to 115,000 tons. The dynamics remain stable for now, but traders are already beginning to experience certain difficulties, primarily related to low grain supply on the domestic market. October-November are traditionally weak months in terms of supply. During this period, prices usually rise, so producers are in no hurry to sell," the analysts note.

Over the past week, wheat prices have risen by USD1–3 per ton. Grade 2–3 food wheat is trading in the range of USD220–225 per ton, and feed wheat is trading at USD206–211 per ton, depending on protein content.

Prices are also affected by the situation on the global grain market.

"On the world market, we are gradually moving from high supply to a certain balance and even a reduction. In addition, an additional driver for price growth is logistics problems in Russia—shipments are slowing down due to FSB checks. While last season Russia exported 5–5.5 million tons of wheat in October–November, this season it will underload by about 1.5 million tons. The market is beginning to feel this," the FUAC explains.

Thus, experts predict a gradual strengthening of wheat prices in the coming months amid low domestic supply, declining global stocks, and logistical constraints in competing countries.

“By the end of October, food wheat may return to USD230 per ton. The seasonal model shows that further growth is expected in January–February — up to USD 250–260 per ton CPT port for third-class wheat. That is, the potential for further growth is about USD 30 per ton,” the experts add.