Sunflower prices in Ukraine have strong potential for further growth despite a recent market correction caused by geopolitical developments and declining oil prices.

This was reported by analysts of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), established within the framework of the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC).

Recent geopolitical developments triggered a wave of declines across commodity markets, with sunflower oil also affected by the correction.

"Last week, following statements by Trump regarding a possible resolution of the conflict with Iran, oil prices fell sharply, dragging down exchange-traded commodities. This also affected the physical vegetable oils market, causing sunflower oil prices to decline by approximately $10–15 per metric ton. As a result, Ukrainian processors began lowering their purchase prices for sunflower seeds. However, the market did not receive additional supply, as farmers continue to hold back sales. Among the reasons are the ongoing planting campaign and the currently more attractive returns from corn sales," the analysts noted.

At the same time, the underlying fundamentals of the sunflower market remain positive. In particular, sunflower oil currently appears undervalued relative to competing vegetable oils.

"Sunflower oil is currently trading at a discount to soybean oil, although historically it should command a premium. This creates conditions for a price recovery in the near future. Even without further gains in soybean oil prices, sunflower oil has room to move higher. The market will also continue to be supported by consistently strong oil prices," FUAC analysts believe.

The domestic sunflower market continues to face a shortage of supply.

"Sunflower seed availability remains very limited, and even large processing plants are operating with minimal raw material stocks—enough for no more than two weeks. Some companies are currently purchasing only 300–700 metric tons per week, which is extremely low for the market. We can expect prices to return to the range of UAH 34,000–35,000 per metric ton," the analysts concluded.