As of June 10, Ukraine exported 312,000 tons of wheat. These are mostly contracts that are being closed from last year's harvest. Currently, importers expect wheat prices to decline due to the approach of the new harvest.

This was reported by analysts of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), which was created within the UAC.

Currently, there is a gap between supply and demand.

"For example, in Bangladesh, the demand price for wheat is USD280-285 per ton, while the export price of Ukrainian wheat is USD295 per ton. This means that the price gap is about USD10. Importers are expecting further price declines as the new harvest is coming soon and stock prices are falling. For example, prices for Russian wheat with a protein content of 12.5% fell from USD250 per ton to USD246-247 per ton. France reduced prices by USD23 per ton last week, and Romanian traders reduced prices by USD7-10 per ton last Friday and Monday," the FUAC mentioned.

An important factor in the market was Turkey's prohibition on wheat imports, which is aimed at protecting domestic producers from competition from Ukraine and Russia and will last until October. Turkey is one of the largest grain hubs in the Black Sea, so this prohibition could have a significant impact on prices, as Turkey was a significant importer of grain from Ukraine, Romania and Russia.

Analysts predict that the new harvest may put pressure on prices, which will recover later in the fall.

"The first new harvest is expected in June, which will increase the supply on the market. This could cause further price declines, with the potential for a USD 5/ton weekly drop over the next two weeks. Prices could reach the bottom of USD170-180 per ton on a CPT basis. However, a gradual rise in prices is expected in the second half of August," the FUAC said.

Experts note that the global market is expected to see a shortage of wheat supply in the new season. According to predictions, production in Russia will decrease by 20 million tons, in the EU - by 10 million tons, and in Ukraine - by 2-3 million tons of export potential. This will affect the market in August-September, when supply will decrease and prices will start to rise.