The excitement in the Ukrainian soybean market, which has been observed in recent months, may decline amid changes in global markets. Experts predict a delayed collapse in prices on the Ukrainian market due to the decline in prices for U.S. soybeans. The price drop is not expected to occur until January, as the market is still moving by inertia.

This issue was discussed on December 19, 2023 during a weekly briefing organized by the analytical center of the agricultural cooperative "First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative" (FUAC), created within the UAC.

"The supply on the soybean market is extremely low, despite sufficient volumes of the oilseed in the country. But there is a huge demand generated by traders and other buyers. In recent months, prices have been rising steadily. Sellers of soybeans observed that the oilseed was adding USD5-10 per 1 ton almost every week, so they expected further growth and held the goods," was noted by the analytical department of FUAC.

Cheaper U.S. soybeans could lead to a drop in demand and prices for the Ukrainian counterpart.

"It is worth noting that the prices for soybeans from the U.S. have significantly decreased on the FOB and CIF markets. For example, Ukrainian soybeans are currently being supplied to Spain at USD240-250 per ton, and to Italy at USD245 per ton, while U.S. soybeans can be supplied to these countries with price tags in the range of USD210-215 per ton. That is why, Ukrainian soybeans are losing price competitiveness in these markets, as well as in Turkey and Egypt, which are also more profitable to buy American soybeans," analysts said.

However, the market is still moving by inertia, and the collapse of prices for Ukrainian soybeans will not come before January.

 "We are getting the first signals of a possible drop in soybean prices. Today, prices in our ports at USD465 per ton look strange, but the market is moving by inertia. Traders are trying to ship Ukrainian soybeans as much as possible under previously concluded contracts. Therefore, soybeans will not be cheap for now. But in January, we can expect the prices for Ukrainian soybeans to fall, if the US oilseed continues to be at low price levels," was predicted by FUAC.

Currently, soybeans remain the leader in terms of profitability among other crops. Over the next week, the notional prices per ton will be at the following levels: USD17,000-17,700 CPT plant, USD430-440 CPT port, USD445-460 DAP Poland-Romania.