Ukraine’s corn market is gaining momentum as purchasing activity from EU countries resumes, with buyers seeking reliable supply volumes. At the same time, the global corn market is entering a risk zone, as limited stocks and declining planting areas among major producers are creating the potential for future shortages. Against this backdrop, Ukraine remains a strategic supplier for Europe.

This was reported by analysts of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), established within the framework of the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC).

"The main driver of the market is demand for Ukrainian corn from EU countries, particularly Greece, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands. This has enabled the market to strengthen and reach price levels of $225–226 per metric ton, which can currently be considered a market equilibrium," the analysts noted.

At the same time, the underlying fundamentals of the global corn market remain tight. Production and consumption are essentially balanced, leaving little room for surplus stocks.

"The global corn market is currently balanced, meaning that virtually everything produced is immediately consumed. Stockpiles remain minimal, creating a system that is highly sensitive to any changes in production. Even a slight reduction in harvest volumes could quickly result in a supply deficit. Buyers understand this and are already beginning to act proactively. In fact, we are already seeing signs of such behavior," FUAC analysts explained.

A key risk factor for the upcoming season is the reduction of corn acreage in major producing countries. Romania and France are expected to decrease corn planting areas, while similar expectations exist for the United States. In this context, Ukraine remains a critically important supplier for the European market.

"European processors are seriously concerned about the outlook for the upcoming harvest. They are actively seeking information about how much corn will be planted in Ukraine and whether acreage reductions are expected. The EU is a net importer of corn and depends heavily on supplies from Ukraine and the United States. In fact, these two countries account for approximately 75–80% of the market. If Ukraine also begins reducing production, this could create a significant supply deficit for Europe," the analysts emphasized.

Currently, Ukraine is not showing any signs of reducing corn acreage. On the contrary, planted areas are expected to increase by approximately 300,000–500,000 hectares. Nevertheless, weather conditions will remain the decisive factor for production outcomes.

"Indicative prices for the new crop are already forming at around $218–220 per metric ton CPT, while some forward contracts have been concluded at $223–224 per metric ton for October–November delivery. This reflects growing concerns among traders regarding a potential supply deficit. Over the longer term, the market demonstrates potential for further growth. According to our estimates, the average price in the new season could reach $240–245 per metric ton CPT, although such levels are likely to materialize closer to the second half of the marketing year," FUAC analysts forecast.

At the same time, the analysts do not recommend rushing into forward sales, given the high level of uncertainty surrounding crop yields and weather conditions.