As of September 22, Ukraine had exported nearly 1.7 million tons of wheat. Currently, there is sufficient coverage of contracts on the market, which to some extent restrains price growth. The situation may change as early as October.

This statement was reported by the analytical department of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), created within the Ukrainian Agri Council.

"The indicative price for third-class wheat remains at USD212–214 CPT-port. This is due to sufficient product reserves among traders and high supply on the world market, especially from russia," the analysts note.

However, wheat contract coverage for November-December is significantly decreasing among many market players.

“Contracts for October are already being concluded at a price of USD218-220 CPT port, with a potential increase to USD223. The main reason is a reduction in stocks and growing uncertainty about the future harvest,” is reported by the FUAC.

Climate risks in countries that are major wheat producers will be the leading factor supporting prices.

"In Ukraine, the central and southern regions are suffering from drought, and no significant rainfall is predicted in the near future. Russia is also experiencing a critical moisture deficit, and the pace of sowing is the slowest in the last five years. A similar situation is observed in France, Romania, and Bulgaria, where moisture shortages are threatening winter wheat yields. Given this, there is a threat of a reduction in winter crop areas. Importers, anticipating potential problems with the 2026 harvest, may purchase grain more actively. Therefore, wheat prices may rise significantly in January-March," the analysts believe.