The Ukrainian barley market remains relatively stable, however, grain supply is gradually decreasing. Against this backdrop, the strengthening of external demand and uncertainty regarding the new harvest create preconditions for possible price growth in the coming weeks.

This was reported by the analytical department of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), established within the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC).

According to analysts, indicative prices for barley on the domestic market currently stand at around UAH 10,800–11,000 per ton.

“However, in recent weeks, the supply of grain has noticeably decreased. Most farmers have effectively suspended sales not only of barley, but also of wheat and rapeseed. The main reason is uncertainty regarding the new harvest and the condition of crops after the winter period. Until the market receives clearer information on crop overwintering, producers are in no hurry to conclude new deals,” FUAC explains.

Against the backdrop of limited supply, external demand for Ukrainian barley is gradually strengthening.

“On the global market, a certain shortage of barley is already being felt. Demand for Ukrainian grain remains, particularly from Turkey. An additional supporting factor may be the situation with crops in other producing countries. In France, problems are being recorded due to excessive moisture, while in Romania there are reports of partial crop losses. Weather risks also persist in the Black Sea region,” analysts note.

An additional factor supporting prices may be demand from China.

“The indicative price for deliveries of Ukrainian barley to China currently stands at around $205–208 per ton CPT port, while recent buyer bids were at the level of $202–205 per ton. The emergence of such indications may signal the formation of more stable demand from Chinese importers,” FUAC adds.

Given these factors, March and the first half of April may become a period of forming an upward price trend in the barley market, provided that external demand remains strong and supply from farmers continues to be limited.