Ukrainian wheat exports remained low in December, primarily due to heightened security risks and disruptions in port infrastructure operations. However, the situation may change as importers become more active and adverse weather conditions affect the Black Sea region.

This was reported by the analytical department of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), established within the framework of the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC).

“December was marked by significant security risks, which objectively kept physical wheat export volumes low. At the same time, weather factors are gaining influence in the market and may support price quotations. In the United States, localized moisture supply issues are being recorded in the wheat belt, already raising concerns about the potential of the new crop. In addition, difficult weather conditions persist in the Black Sea region — frosts without snow cover and flooding followed by soil freezing. This combination of factors may gradually push the global wheat market upward,” FUAC analysts explained.

An additional driver is the recovery of import demand, as key buyers are returning to the market after a pause in procurement.

“Egypt last made active wheat purchases in late November to early December and now needs to replenish its stocks. The market is gradually becoming more active, and importers need to resume procurement, so demand is expected to increase in the coming weeks,” FUAC noted.

As of January 13, indicative prices for wheat with 11.5% protein content on a CPT-port basis stand at USD 213–214 per tonne.