In recent weeks, the bombing of the Danube port infrastructure has become more frequent, making it highly risky to store grain in local warehouses, so wheat exports are being shipped directly. Also, every enemy attack on ports raises the cost of freight, making exports by sea less profitable than by land.

This issue was discussed on September 5 during a weekly briefing organized by the analytical center of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, established within the framework of the UAC.

"In the first four days of September, Ukraine exported over 100,000 tons of wheat, mostly by road and railways. Most of the grain cars go to Constanta, while no more than 30% is exported from Ukrainian ports. The potential of the Danube ports is currently unrealized due to the bombing of port infrastructure and the destruction of local warehouses: traders do not risk storing grain, and direct transshipment takes more time than shipment from warehouses. Therefore, there is a risk of overstocking.  As of September 1, wheat stocks amounted to 22 million tons, slightly less than last year. Ukraine could export 3 million tons of grain monthly through the Danube ports, but now it is impossible to export such volumes. In addition, each bombing leads to higher freight costs. The constant increase in freight costs and the unwillingness to overstock warehouses make the Danube an illiquid sales channel," PUSK's analytical department noted.

The minimum conditional price for feed wheat in the Danube ports starts from 140 USD/t, the maximum price tags are in the range of 150-154 USD/t. Prices on DAP Romania terms are about 220 USD/t.

Tuesday, 5 September 2023


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