Prices for the export of cereals and oilseeds on the international market have fallen in the last week. One of the main reasons was the situation around the coronavirus outbreak in China, which had the biggest impact on corn exports.
“Unlike wheat, the impact of the coronavirus on the corn market is much stronger. Active exports continue to support prices, however, the approach of corn harvesting in Argentina and Brazil will soon start, which in the case of good weather and good harvest, always leads to a sharp collapse in prices. Now, both large and smaller farmers are holding back the crop as they see an increase in demand from traders. Given that the coronavirus has already led to a fall in prices in Chicago, which especially affects international traders, the market before the harvest in Argentina can no longer return to previous levels, "- commented Oleksandr Buyukli, the executive director of the cooperative" PUSK ".
According to him, Ukraine today remains the leader in wheat exports by price and one of the leaders in terms of shipments. This trend is also supported by the active rise in prices for Russian wheat. However, in the coming weeks the virus will have a permanent downward impact on prices. As for barley, by the end of January Ukraine had exported almost 4 million tones, almost completely exhausting its export potential. In such cases, even in the case of global changes, prices have little effect. Now the situation is stable.
Prices for oilseeds - sunflower, soybean, rapeseed - also felt the impact of the coronavirus. Despite the agreement between the US and China to increase Beijing's soybean supply, this coronavirus may be a factor that keeps China from fulfilling its promise. Market participants place this risk in prices that are actively falling. As for sunflower, now all world oils have fallen sharply, which will lead to a similar movement in the sunflower market. If the situation in China continues to intensify, it can have a lasting impact. In any case, there is no hope for rising sunflower prices.
“It should be understood that the oil market is closely interconnected. Currently, palm oil prices have fallen by more than 10%. Due to the active spread of the coronavirus in China (and the first infected in India), there is a threat that the purchases by the two largest importers in the world will fall sharply. If the information is confirmed, it will lead to a fall in prices for all of the vegetable oils, "- said Oleksandr Buyukli.
*The First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (PUSK) is a multifunctional agricultural cooperative. This start-up was established within the framework of the Ukrainian Agri Council on March 23, 2017. It currently unites 74 small and medium-sized farms in 12 regions of Ukraine with a total land bank of over 200,000 hectares in its ranks.
Wednesday, 29 January 2020