Despite significant stocks, corn prices in Ukraine continue to increase. The market is supported by steady exports at around 2.3 million tons per month, while the key driver of price growth remains high fertilizer costs.

This is reported by analysts of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), established within the Ukrainian Agri Council.

“On the domestic corn market, prices are gradually strengthening. According to FUAC estimates, last week quotations ranged within $214–216 per ton CPT port, while large lots of 3–7 thousand tons were traded at around $217 per ton, with some deals reaching $218 per ton. The market is expected to maintain an upward trend at least until mid-April,” the FUAC analysts note.

The key factor for the new season is the situation with fertilizers, which have become more expensive due to the war in the Middle East. In Ukraine, farmers are entering the sowing campaign under conditions of high input costs, which is already affecting approaches to corn cultivation as the most resource-intensive crop.

“The fertilizer factor is currently one of the decisive ones. High input costs are forcing farmers to revise their technologies, and some may reduce application rates. This will directly affect potential yields and supply in the new season,” FUAC analysts believe.

At the global level, this factor is even more pronounced. In particular, in Brazil, some producers may refrain from full fertilizer application for the second corn crop due to high costs.

“In Brazil, there are already signals that some farmers will not apply fertilizers to the second corn crop planted after soybeans. This is due to high input prices and the fact that their main income has already been generated from soybeans. Despite soybeans’ ability to fix nitrogen in the soil, this is not sufficient to ensure optimal corn yields. As a result, yields may be lower than expected, which will affect the overall market balance,” the analyst noted.

The global corn market currently remains balanced, but this equilibrium is quite sensitive.

“In fact, almost the entire volume of corn produced globally is consumed. At the same time, the gap between production and consumption is minimal. In the new season, a scenario is possible where consumption exceeds production, and the market will begin to draw on stocks. That is why, even with expectations of large harvests, sharp price declines are not observed,” analysts emphasize.

Thus, despite significant stocks in Ukraine, the corn market retains growth potential in the coming weeks.