Difficult weather conditions have a negative impact on the future harvest of Ukrainian corn and sunflower. It is possible to repeat 2020, when the harvest of these crops decreased by 35% due to drought. This was reported today by analysts of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), which was created within the Ukrainian Agri Council.

“Productive moisture reserves are extremely low. Despite the fact that the temperature is expected to drop, the lack of precipitation will negatively affect the development of these crops. Nowadays, in particular, corn is beginning to bloom, laying the foundation for yields. And without precipitation, the situation could be quite critical. Unfortunately, there could be a repeat of 2020 and 30-35% reduction in yields. This fact makes some importers stock up on corn while it is cheap,” the analyst warned.

As for now, global demand for corn has increased as Romanian corn has been “burned” by the heat. Approximately 15% to 30% of the corn acreage in Romania was lost.

“For your understanding, last Monday Romanian corn cost 190-192 USD per ton on the FOB, and yesterday it was already USD 200-202, i.e., it increased by 10 USD per week. Ukrainian corn on the export market rose by USD  3-4. Demand has resumed, and European importers have started to build up stocks. Egypt is starting to contract corn, so Ukrainian producers can compete with American and Argentine corn. Yesterday, the price tag was 170-172 USD per ton, and if weather risks persist, in August we may see a price tag of USD180 for old-crop corn,” the FUAC explained.

Trade in the sunflower market is currently weak. By the end of the season, this crop will be illiquid. As for the pricing policy of the new harvest, the indication for September-October will be 410-430 USD per ton (including VAT). Analysts have not advised to conclude future forward contracts yet, as the situation is uncertain, but the price of sunflower may rise.