The EU has begun realizing the risk of starvation due to the war in Ukraine. In Europe, food prices are rising extremely quickly.

In Germany, there have been registered some cases of restricted sale of goods per customer. And it has been only the 4th week of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war. There is also a lack of certain products on the shelves: flour, pasta, cooking oil, cereals etc. On Monday, March 21, representatives of the EU ministries of agriculture met to coordinate their steps regarding the food crisis. The European Commission is going to convene later this week for a major conference to consider one of the main issues — food security. "This war is becoming problematic and tomorrow it will carry the risk of famine," French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said.

European concern

According to the results of 2021, Ukraine was among the top five suppliers of agricultural products to the EU. Last year Ukraine’s exports of agricultural products to the European Union amounted to $8.4 billion, 26% up compared to 2020. Plant oils and fats, cereals and oilseeds as well as processing industry byproducts account for more than 80% of the commodity structure of agriexports. Since February 24, sales of these amounts to Europe have been an issue of concern. 

"We see the consequences of war, the impossibility of harvesting, of sowing, of exporting. It’s not sanctions that are making the global food security malfunction, it’s the war, because there aren’t any sanctions on food,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian declared.

Additionally, among the major food security challenges faced by Western countries, such as disruption of spring planting and blocking the farms and processing facilities in the occupied territories, there is also a big problem with supply chains. Before the war, 80% of goods were exported from Ukraine by seaports. Currently, due to suspended port operations, the railway is overloaded with military and humanitarian transportation. Besides, Ukraine is completely dependent on fuel and agrochemicals supplies from the West, which, in its turn, increases the pressure on logistics in this direction. Up to 10 million Ukrainian refugees are being expected in Europe in the coming weeks.

"We are witnessing the biggest humanitarian crisis since World War II, millions of people are fleeing, we have over 3 million refugees. We must assume that there will be 8 to 10 million refugees in the coming weeks," German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said.

As already mentioned, these challenges forced European ministers of agriculture to meet. Much attention was paid to the adjustment of domestic production to compensate for Ukrainian supplies of agricultural products. One of the key decisions was the temporary permit for sowing on the lands left for the conservation of biodiversity. From January 2023, the new EU's common agricultural policy was to enter into force across Europe. According to its directives, farms with an area of ​​more than 10 hectares must leave 4% of their land uncultivated. Forage crops such as soybeans and corn will now be grown in these areas. This should reduce dependence on imports from Ukraine, according to the EU.

Ukraine’s present situation

The farming enterprise in the Kherson region, owned by Andriy Pastushenko, has been under occupation for more than two weeks. Before the war with Russia, they operated ​​1.5 thousand hectares and milked 350 cows producing 10 tons of milk daily. Milk was delivered to the French processing plant Lactalis and was used to produce butter under the President brand. From the first days of the war, the logistics chains were broken and the farm became isolated. Initially, milk was distributed for free to everyone in need. Today, the farm employees make cottage cheese, sour cream, butter and cereals, and sold the products at the lowest price.

"Today we are not talking about exporting to the EU or milk deliveries to local processing plants. No one will come to us. Our economy has entered a "survival" mode. I have no moral right in front of dozens of my workers and locals to close production, we do not have working capital to start sowing. We were not paid for the grain of the previous harvest, and the seeds, which were paid for, were not delivered. We are moving down, it is a degradation of the economy and I do not see the end of this decline. Even if we live more or less calmly, so that at least the machines can go to the field, I do not understand what to do, where to get diesel," Andriy Pastushenko said.

In the unoccupied territories, the situation with spring planting is not better. Delivery chains have been destroyed, resulting in lack of fuel, fertilizers, chemicals for crop protection, seeds and, in the first place, funds to finance field work.

Ukraine's security is Europe's security

Wheat prices on the French stock exchange increased from $315, as of February 18, 2022, to $439 per ton in the beginning of March. Rapeseed price have risen from €640/t last year to more than €900 in March 2022. German farmers are raising concerns because eggs, produced in the country, may soon be out of stock. What is the reason? Catastrophic rising of feed prices, including soybeans. Where does the feed come from? That is right — it comes from Ukraine. Especially if it comes to non-GMO soybeans, Olga Trofimtseva, Ambassador-at-Large in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, wrote on her Facebook page.

"Europe is already feeling the consequences from the war, including ordinary consumers. The Germans are buying up essential social products in the supermarkets: oil, sugar, flour. Some supermarkets impose restrictions on purchases: no more than a certain amount per person. There are two reasons for this: firstly, it is war anxiety, and secondly, there are direct economic consequences, influenced by many factors, which will eventually lead to food shortages and higher food prices. It is just the beginning. The sowing season has just begun, and everyone understands that during the war we will be concerned about our own food security first and foremost," Olga Trofimtseva said.

She adds that European countries help us ensure the sowing season. They are supplying seeds, fertilizers and pesticides to Ukraine. Many countries help with humanitarian aid, but it does not solve the problem systematically.

"Now Europe is trying to adapt to new realities. Many experts say that farmers need to grow classic agricultural products: wheat, corn etc. But it is impossible to rebuild the agricultural sector quickly. When talking to my European colleagues, I emphasize that they must increase economic, political, diplomatic and military pressure to stop this war. There is no other way for Ukraine to regain its status as a breadbasket of the world, not only of Europe", Olga Trofimtseva pointed out.

Not only the EU, but the whole world is at risk

Before the war Ukraine provided grain for almost half a billion people around the planet. Ukraine was the largest exporter of sunflower oil and meal. World exports of sunflower oil in the 2021/22 marketing year amounted to 10.9 million tons, half of which, 5,4 million tons, being exported by Ukraine. Next is the export of barley and rapeseed, rye and sorghum. Ukraine provides about 10% of the total world grain supply.

"The main markets to which Ukraine and Russia exported their agricultural products were the countries of Africa, the Middle East and Asia. Currently, the world is in a tense situation, not even in terms of prices, but also in the terms of availability of products in these countries. Lebanon is running out of flour. Wheat and corn prices will continue to rise. The war in Ukraine threatens global food security," Mykhailo Sokolov, the Ukrainian Agri Council Deputy Chairman, said.

On March 22, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his speech to the Italian Chamber of Deputies that Ukrainian agrarians cannot plant under constant Russian troops fire. The enemy is mining fields, destroying warehouses and fuel bases. There were cases of stolen grain from grain elevators.

"We do not know what harvest we will have and whether we will be able to export when our ports are blocked and seized. Corn, vegetable oil, wheat and many other products. Vital goods, for your neighbors as well. Across the sea. So how many tens of millions of people will need help?" President of Ukraine said in his speech.

Farid Huseinov, Agravery.com