The Ukrainian corn market is currently illiquid, despite the recent extension of the grain deal. However, there are all the prerequisites for a rise in grain prices in mid-April. In particular, demand for corn is driven by China. This was discussed on March 28 during a weekly briefing organized by the analytical center of the PUSK cooperative, created within the framework of the UAC.

"As of March 27, Ukraine has exported 2.7 million tons of corn, and 3 million tons of the grain can be exported in April. The market liquidity is minimal, traders are not in a hurry to contract because of the ambiguity of the grain deal extension. The market is waiting for a clear confirmation that the humanitarian corridor will be open for 120 days," said the PUSK analyst.

However, based on the market trends, we can predict the growth of corn prices.

"Prices will grow. Significant volumes have already been contracted. The main buyer of Ukrainian corn is China, which creates demand. China is actively contracting and will continue purchasing in the future. There are all prerequisites for corn prices to rise until mid-April, but only at major seaports. All neighboring countries - Poland, Romania - no longer need Ukrainian corn, as they have significant volumes,"  said the Pusk representative.

On the terms of CPT Odesa, corn prices start at 7500 UAH/t, and by mid-April the it may reach 8200 UAH/t.

In Ukraine, the corn planting has started in Odesa and Mykolaiv regions. It is expected that about 4 mln hectares will be planted, which will be a record low for the last 5-7 years.

Tuesday, 28 March 2023

 

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