The Ukrainian pea market recently received two important pieces of news that could affect price trends and trade in the coming months. First, China has certified Ukrainian peas. Second, duty-free trade with India, which was under threat of being canceled, remains in effect.

This statement was reported by the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC) analysts, created within the UAC.

China's certification of Ukrainian peas means that in the new season our products will be exported to a new market.

“In fact, we have another large market where we can export peas. This will undoubtedly support prices for the new crop. Although there may be some off-season drops, there is a high probability that we will see an increase in prices in July-September 2025. At the moment, the market demand for new crop peas is formed at a conditional level of 225-230 USD per ton for delivery in July-August,” the FUAC analysts said.

Ukrainian exporters received another piece of positive news: duty-free trade in peas with India, which was supposed to end in February 2025, has been extended until the end of May 2025.

“For pea producers, this is a positive factor - those who did not have time to sell have now got a second chance. However, the stocks of peas in Ukraine are quite limited now. The main volumes have already been sold, and only small batches remain on the market. This means that despite the possibility of exports and the continuation of duty-free trade with India, there will be no sharp increase in supply now,” the FUAC commented.

At the same time, there are weather problems in India that may affect the harvest and, accordingly, further trade policy.

“There is a high probability that India will continue duty-free imports in the future. There may be situations when trade is allegedly closed, but resumed again in a few days. Therefore, it is logical not to rush into forward contracts, but to focus on the spot market, where it is likely to be possible to sell peas at higher prices,” the analysts predicted.

Thus, Ukrainian producers have new prospects for exports, and China and India are becoming drivers for pricing in the new season.