The Ukrainian barley market is showing unstable dynamics due to internal factors. According to the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), barley exports as of January 17, 2025 amounted to almost 60,000 tons, which indicates a certain recovery of the market. However, the situation remains tense due to sharp price fluctuations.

“Barley prices have jumped very much, which can be explained primarily by the reduction of stocks and strong demand. Last week, its price was equal to the price of corn and feed wheat, which isn’t typical for the market,” said the FUAC analysts.

Usually, in such cases, there is an adjustment over a certain period of time: either corn and wheat become more expensive, leaving barley in place, or barley sinks down. At present, analysts are inclined to the second option, as the global demand for barley remains weak.

“The global market is not showing any serious dynamics in demand for barley. Italy and Spain are signing agreements to supply small batches of barley – 2,000-3,000 tons. However, there is no real systematic work yet. At the same time, the domestic market is overheated, which may negatively affect the price dynamics in the coming weeks,” the experts added.

Another important factor is the significant reduction of barley stocks compared to last year. As of February 1, Ukraine is expected to have about 1.3-1.4 mln tons of barley, which is almost half of last season's stocks, when they exceeded 3 mln tons. This increases the tension on the market as traders are forced to actively search for the product to fulfill contracts.

According to the FUAC, once the major players complete their purchases, barley prices may drop by 10-15 USD per ton. The current average price in ports is 215-218 USD per ton, which is higher than the price of corn. However, the seasonal model predicts a price drop to 195-200 USD per ton.

Demand for the new harvest is also beginning to take shape. The indication for regular barley for delivery in July-August is currently 180-185 USD per ton on a CPT-port basis, while for malting barley, offers start at 170 USD per ton on FCA-elevator terms. This indicates the gradual formation of the future market, although buyers are not yet ready to actively contract large volumes.