Ukrainian wheat exports have begun to recover after a prolonged slowdown, driven by a revival in global demand, particularly from Asian countries. At the same time, the market is increasingly responding to weather-related risks in the United States and France, where crop conditions are deteriorating and concerns about harvest prospects are growing. Against this backdrop, Black Sea wheat is becoming more competitive, prompting importers to actively contract supplies for the new marketing season.

This was reported by analysts of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), established within the framework of the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC).

"Global wheat production in the new season is expected to reach approximately 790 million metric tons, while Ukraine is projected to harvest around 23–24 million metric tons. At the same time, crop conditions in the United States continue to deteriorate, and wheat production could decline from 54 million metric tons to 42 million metric tons due to insufficient rainfall. France is also entering a period of moisture deficit, which may negatively affect prospects for the European harvest," the analysts noted.

Against the backdrop of these weather-related risks, the global wheat balance is becoming increasingly tight.

"For now, large global inventories are preventing a significant rise in wheat prices. The main price movement will most likely occur in August and September," FUAC analysts predictions.

For Ukraine, growing demand from Asian markets is becoming the key supportive factor for the wheat market. After sluggish trading activity during the winter and early spring months, importers have begun actively rebuilding stocks.

"Following weak trading activity during the winter and early spring, Ukraine exported more than 540,000 metric tons of wheat in May alone, and total exports could reach 1 million metric tons by the end of the month. Asian countries remain the primary buyers of Ukrainian wheat and, amid production risks in the United States, are increasingly shifting toward Black Sea-origin grain. Importers are already seeking supplies for the autumn months. Ukrainian wheat currently remains the most competitively priced option on the market: deliveries to Indonesia are estimated at approximately $285–290 per metric ton, while Australian and U.S. wheat are priced above $300 per metric ton," FUAC analysts added.