Ukrainian wheat is currently in demand by Asian countries - Bangladesh, Indonesia, and the Philippines - which are experiencing a shortage of grain supply. While in previous years, Asia bought wheat from Australia, this year Australian wheat is being contracted for the more premium Chinese market. Improvement of the situation with grain shipments in Odesa ports draws attention of Asian buyers to the Black Sea supplies and will contribute to the growth of prices for Ukrainian wheat.

This was discussed on October 17 during a weekly briefing organized by the analytical center of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, established within the UAC.

"Ukraine has harvested wheat at the same level as last year, but the logistics are not working well. However, over the past few weeks, large-tonnage Panamax vessels have been steadily calling at Odesa ports, and there is a significant demand from Asian buyers on a CIF basis. We are talking about Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Indonesia. If we look at the price of wheat that Ukraine can offer, we can win a lot in the competition.

Traditionally, starting in December, Australia has been covering Asia's wheat needs, but according to the latest USDA report, the Australian harvest may drop to 25 million tons. China is actively contracting Australian wheat, and Asia lacks supply. Indonesia alone needs 10 million tons of wheat and is one of the largest buyers of the grain. However, Australia is willingly switching to supplies to China, as it is a more premium market," is mentioned by the analytical department of PUSK cooperative.

According to analysts, Asia is switching to supplies from the Black Sea, and Romania is interested in Ukrainian wheat, which can be contracted at a price of about $285 per ton. The problem is logistical constraints; currently, about 1 million tons of grain can leave Odesa ports every month.

The notional wheat prices are $165-170 per ton on CPT Danube ports, $218-225 DAP Romania, and $145-150 CPT Odesa for 2-3 class.

"Last week, Odesa ports stepped up trade, and price tags are starting to match those of the Danube ports. The demand is growing and it will push the prices up, we can expect the weekly growth of wheat prices at the level of 3-5 USD/t," PUSK added.