Due to restrictions on the movement of ships carrying Ukrainian agricultural products through the humanitarian grain corridor and the western borders, the new wheat harvest, which is in demand, is hardly ever contracted through forward. At the same time, stocks of the old harvest are putting pressure on prices, and all deliveries are directed to small ports. Large seaports are not selling the new harvest.

This was discussed on May 2 during a weekly briefing organized by the analytical center of the PUSK cooperative, created within the UAC.

Last week was a weak for the export of Ukrainian agricultural products, only 11 ships were sent through the grain corridor. Ukraine will send at least 15 ships next week. It is expected that less than 60 ships may leave Ukrainian seaports in May.

"Almost 1.4 million tons of wheat were exported in April, and we forecast 1 million tons of exports for May, but it will depend on the functioning of the grain corridor. There is demand for old crop wheat, we have significant stocks of 8 mln tons, but all exports will now be focused on small ports, rail and road deliveries. In fact, wheat is not sold at the Black Sea ports," said PUSK.

Regarding the sale of the new harvest, due to ogistical problems, traders hesitate to enter into forward contracts, as they are not sure whether they will be able to ship the grain in August.

"For the new harvest, Ukraine is off the market, forwards are not very active, possible deals with delivery in July-August through small ports, but in small batches, maximum 2-3 thousand tons, and at a low price of $170 per ton. The market is switching to spot," PUSK analysts said.

The prices for food wheat on CPT terms at small ports this week are in the range of 190-195 USD/t. By the end of the month, we can expect a decrease in export activity and a drop in prices to the level of 175-180 USD/t. At the end of May, the prices for the old and new wheat crops are expected to converge.

"As for our domestic wheat market, we are actually cut off from the world. Sales channels are very limited. As mentioned before, we have wheat stocks that will put pressure on prices," PUSK adds.